Identifying individual and spatial drivers of heterogeneous transmission and virulence of malaria in Caribbean anoles

Abstract Heterogeneous distributions are a fundamental principle of ecology, manifesting as natural variability within ecological levels organization from individuals to ecosystems. In disease in biotic and abiotic factors can result heterogeneous patterns transmission virulence—broadly defined here the negative consequences infection. Still, our classic theoretical understanding dynamics comes models that assume homogeneous virulence. Here, we test this assumption by assessing contribution various sources individual spatial heterogeneity sublethal measurements virulence two lizard–malaria systems: three‐parasite assemblage ( Plasmodium floridense , leukocytica azurophilum ) infecting lizard Anolis gundlachi rainforest Puerto Rico single‐parasite system P. – sagrei Florida. Using Bayesian model selection framework, evaluated whether host differences (i.e., body size sex) or habitat type local‐scale structure) drive probability infection its associated health costs condition, blood chemistry). We found increases with increasing both systems. However, Florida, relationship be subdued deforested habitats compared adjacent urban hydric forests. Furthermore, was spatially clustered sampling sites, “hot” “cold” spots across landscape. Nevertheless, no clear evidence on any measures assessed hence grounds for inference regarding Ultimately, consistency results systems suggests prominent roles heterogeneities driving vector‐borne diseases.